I was talking to someone today who works for the US Army Corps of Engineers. He said that they are building a base in Iraq that will be the second largest military base in the world. That seems rather like an exaggeration. However, the point is that the US has no intention of ever leaving Iraq completely. Period.

How's that for a spin on the issue? Anyone who thinks we're leaving Iraq after they establish themselves is sorely mistaken. And, misinformed. The US has no intention of leaving the oil. So, whatever government gets established there is going to have to live with this fact.. And, that's that.

was talking to someone today who works for the US Army Corps of Engineers. He said that they are building a base in Iraq that will be the second largest military base in the world. That seems rather like an exaggeration. However, the point is that the US has no intention of ever leaving Iraq completely. Period. How's that for a spin on the issue? Anyone who thinks we're leaving Iraq after they establish themselves is sorely mistaken. And, misinformed. The US has no intention of leaving the oil. So, whatever government gets established there is going to have to live with this fact.. And, that's that.

Ask your *friend* how big the naval base was that we walked away from in the Philippines. And then tell me again how we're never leaving Iraq.

We were in Subic Bay since the end of the Spanish American War. (with the exception of the time the Japanese held it during WW2 of course) It was closed during the base closure days of the 90's. The base was closed due to the end of the Cold war, and expansions of existing bases in Guam, and Okinawa. Basically it was rendered obsolete.

That puts it just shy of 100 years. Twice as long as we had troops in Europe for the Cold War and WW2.

That's a long time.

The US will have to maintain a strong military presence in Iraq for a long time as well. Mainly to insure that the Islamic fundamentalists don't take over. Oil is the second reason. And given our countries dependance on arab oil, i don't see how anyone can say we won't maintain a long term military presence in the country. If you remember correctly it's precisely why bush 1.0 kicked saddam out of kuwait in the first place. It was because our government didn't want Saddam (or any other enemy of the US for that matter) having control of that much oil. (Remember Iran in 1979?)

Anybody who thinks were outta there in a few years is just naive. As much as i hate to admit it.

Very good post BTW!

dabe: i agree that it will be a long time before we get out. my question is whether or not we CAN get out, now. let's suppose we removed our forces in two or three years. there's no way that iraq could survive, is there?

forget about oil, forget about any other political motivation for the moment. let's suppose we had one pure intention, and that intention was to help re-build a stable country with a sound infrastructure. could we do it, and also remove our forces?

we could discuss the reasons for this war, our reasons for pursuing several political and/or social goals. but my question is one of probability, really. can we leave and have the country survive?

tbt

dr.miller,

im not necessarily convinced that we are setting up a permanent installation the way dabe suggested, though i do see this as a possibility. but maybe im searching for a best-case scenario, regardless of whether or not we remove our forces.

again, im not there. im no soldier and im not looking to spin the situation to look a certain way from a certain political perspective. of course, i do have a political perspective, but at the moment i just feel overwhelmed by what i see as a long, and somewhat unlikely, road to stability.

do you see it another way?

tbt

thatoneguy,

i pretty much feel the way you do. very good reply: thank you. while i certainly wasn't convinced that a military effort should have taken place, right now i think removing the troops would be an unmitigated disaster for iraq, not even to begin speaking about oil or other local interests.

i wish i could flag one of the soldiers who post at this site regularly to give a 1st person account of how things look. my own morale has taken a nose-dive, at the moment. im surprised and somewhat excited by the large voter turn-out that just took place, but we also get reports that a large percentage of the voters had no clear idea what they were voting for. the fact that so many voted in the first place is encouraging regardless, but right now it seems like a small positive token in a middle of a sea of ominous signs.

tbt

You guys and your crazy oil conspiracies.

If Im not mistaken wasnt Subic Bay closed not because of the BRAC report persay but because it substained a sizeable amount of damage from a volcanic eruption? the costs of rebuilding it I believe were a prime motivator...at least I believe it was Subic Bay.

For those asking when we are getting out of Iraq...take a seat and learn some history....unless they missed the part of still having troops (bout 100,000+) still deployed in western europe....60 years after WW2....troops still in S. Korea (bout 35,000+) still deployed there 50 years after the end of that war (although there was never a peace treaty..only a ceasefire).

As to Korea..I believe US troops are still needed there as long as they are wanted....as for Western Europe....the need for anything more than a token force is lost to me...but hey...if they were not there...Western Europe might have to gulp!..pay for real military budgets instead of letting them wither on the vine of budgetary cuts...which is why when the issue of deploying troops from western europe to Iraq and Afghan, then after the global realignments of 75,000 troops from S. Korea and Europe planned for a 5 year period, the Euro's browned their trousers and created a diplomatic sh*tstorm bout "Nato commitments"....

As to Iraq...it is conceivable that US/Coalition forces will be there..in lower numbers..for years to come..I dont discount 1-2 decades....as to the media hype bout a possible theocratic goverment akin to Iran...get real...Iraqi shia's dont follow the same sort of religious sect as the mullahs in Iran...hell even 75% of the Iranians are 35 or under, very pro-west and increasingly pro-us....so many of the arguments are moot....when we try to predict what sort of goverment Iraqis will have too many try to compare it to American/European goverments which is the problem...most likely its gonna become something in between demorcracy and pan-arab rule....it may be good..it may be bad...but it will be a hell of alot better then under the former regime.....

"we could discuss the reasons for this war, our reasons for pursuing several political and/or social goals. but my question is one of probability, really. can we leave and have the country survive?"

TaBoo, we really are in a damned if you do / damned if you don't scenario in Iraq. Truly, I don't know what the answer is. But, it seems like there will be horrific bloodshed if we stay. There could be complete collapse if we leave. Either way, it's a lousy choice. Sometimes, it feels like there will be a civil war no matter what the Americans do, and leaving will only hasten this inevitable event. I dunno. That's really ugly, so we stay for now, because there is nothing else to do. That's why I hate Bush so much (at least one reason). He gambled away thousands of lives in order to eliminate a rather minor threat. He got us into this misery making quagmire, and I really hate the SOB. I hate him because he stuck it to us, and he stuck it to the Iraqis. And his neocon buddies are stealing billions of dollars in the process. What a total waste of resources, both material and human.

I was watching The West Wing on TV tonight. In the episode there was a character, played by Christopher Lloyd, who was working with the Belarus government to write a constitution. He and Toby were arguing about what the constitution should say, but Lloyd insisted that it was not the constitution that they were writing. Instead, they had to teach democracy to the Belarusans. He was insisting that you cannot write a democratic constitution for a country to follow, if the people do not understand, and have never lived under democratic government. The constitution can only come after the people learn democracy.

I thought this was interesting, because it seems in Iraq we are attempting to impose a democracy on people who have no concept of what it really means. We are putting the cart before the horse. This is something that should have been done diplomatically, rather than by force, and Iraqis largely see the US as an occupying force rather than there to teach democracy.

It's late and I'm tired. Tough day at work. Good artilcle, TaBoo. You pose some really tough questions, though unanswerable right now, are definitely not rhetorical.

......And then tell me again how we're never leaving Iraq."

We're never leaving Iraq.

couchman,

well, that definitely answers my question; your feelings about permanent installments are a little different than mine, but i agree with your take nonetheless.

we will be in iraq for a long while. im not certain where you were going with your media-hyped iran twin comment, but i wonder whether or not the us would have anything to say about the most enlightened elected theocracy, or about even your most enlightened pan-arab rule. forget about any oil issues for the moment. there are more voices here in the middle east and the us is going to have to deal. we are the infrastructure there, now, like it or not.

tbt

If Im not mistaken wasnt Subic Bay closed not because of the BRAC report persay but because it substained a sizeable amount of damage from a volcanic eruption? the costs of rebuilding it I believe were a prime motivator...at least I believe it was Subic Bay.

You would be WRONG! Although it did sustain damage from the volcano, that is NOT the reason it closed. It was closed at the request of the Philippine senate.

You would be WRONG! Although it did sustain damage from the volcano, that is NOT the reason it closed. It was closed at the request of the Philippine senate.

Along with Clark AFB.

Reply By: dabePosted: Wednesday, February 09, 2005 ......And then tell me again how we're never leaving Iraq." We're never leaving Iraq.

Thanks for letting us know your occupation.  Professional nay sayer, and always wrong.

im not certain i believe, like dabe, that we will be there forever. but dr. guy, i wonder where you are finding your hope. im not sure if you, like couchman, expect an extended stay with a positive end result, or you believe that we will be removing forces in the next few years. but right now, i have no idea what to hope for.

tbt