Goodbye, Iraq

Can Iraq Survive?

Published on February 9, 2005 By TaBoo Tenente In Politics

I do not live in Iraq. I've never been there, though I have spent time in the Middle East. I am not a soldier, and I do not patrol the streets of Baghdad, or fight to maintain safety while Iraqi citizens attempt to control the direction of a new government.

But news reports and military maps seem to suggest an unfortunate reality. United States and the coalition of armed forces appear to occupy only a tiny section of the whole, while insurgents continue to struggle. I cannot attest to the general sentiment among Iraqi citizens, but I feel that the overall morale must wildly fluctuate. Did the average Iraqi know for what they were voting? Can they imagine what the future will look like in ten years? Would the average Iraqi, in the privacy of prayer and hidden heart, wish for our armed forces to remain, or to leave?

Regardless of the political direction, the new government must first and foremost create a new infrastructure that will provide police and fire rescue, medical care and food production. From the perspective of a private citizen of the United States, things look bleak. What happens when our forces pull out and return to their homes? Will we have the capability, never mind the willingness, to train and support the new government?

What happens if the government restores a theocracy of some sort? Will our support continue? What if insurgents strike deep into Baghdad: will we return en masse?

Right now, I have this growing sense that, unless we maintain a permanent presence in Iraq, then the country may dissolve beyond repair. How long are we willing to remain? Do we want to remain? Should we remain?

I am very interested in a soldier's perspective right now. Those of you who continue to fight, how do you see the future? What hopes do you have that you might lend to me, a lowly, sheltered citizen of the distant United States?

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Comments (Page 2)

thatoneguyinslc

on Feb 10, 2005

Actually couchman and miler are both correct. I forgot about the volcano and the philipine government. My bad!

But my point was that if the US government feels they have a legitimate reason to be there, they are fully prepared to stay.

Dr Guy

on Feb 10, 2005

im not certain i believe, like dabe, that we will be there forever. but dr. guy, i wonder where you are finding your hope. im not sure if you, like couchman, expect an extended stay with a positive end result, or you believe that we will be removing forces in the next few years. but right now, i have no idea what to hope for.

I get my hope from history. While we have had extended stays in bases overseas, when we were told to get, we got. The most recent one was in Saudi Arabia. They told us go, we went. Unlike the eurpoean poweres, America has never been an imperial power. As Cesar would say, Veni, Vidi, Vici, and then go home.

Kind of Ironic that right now some of our oldest bases, we are trying to leave, and the host country is cryiing fowl!

Dr Guy

on Feb 10, 2005

But my point was that if the US government feels they have a legitimate reason to be there, they are fully prepared to stay.

And when we are told to go, we go. Sure we loved those Phillipine bases for a long time, but they finally got tired of us and booted us. Just as in Saudi Arabia, France, and any other country that has told us to leave.

TaBoo Tenente

on Feb 10, 2005

im not disagreeing with you. maybe it's the simple fact that im here listening to varied news sources, and my understanding of whats happening there is filtered through so many perspectives.

i hope that at some point there will be someone in iraq backed by the popular opinion and with the understanding to determine that it is indeed time for us to leave.

what i believe, though, is that there is too much instability throughout the region and a severely gutted infrastructure in iraq itself for us to anticipate any likely pullout date. but as i said, i have no interest in having us pull out any time soon, because anyone can see, even some of us liberals, that the country would collapse if we did.

my other thought concerns the spirit of the surrounding nations. one could possibly make an argument that most of the regional unrest over the last twenty years stems directly from iraq. im not sure this is completely true, even if couchman seems to think that the days of a popular radical theocracy are over. but it would be nice to think that as the iraqi system stabilizes, so will the rest of the region. no doubt the issue of a reinstated palestine will continue regardless, but with increased stability everywhere else, one could at least imagine the possibility of decreased conflict in israel.

i just dont completely buy it. it seems that several radical stances exist amongst these countries--and not all are religious, of course. right now it seems that insurgencies will continue, that we do not have adequate forces there to solidify and train a local police force, or provide for other fundamental services that even the most bare-boned government must provide.

if you ask me for a better suggestion, i have none at the moment--hence this article. there is a stupid, idealistic chunk of me that wants me to find my way to iraq to see it for myself. you guys know that im not a soldier and it is stressful and difficult for me to make a case for what should be done without really knowing what is happening there. the last time i was in the middle east, i spent my time in egypt and israel. in israel, i was lucky enough to arrive between bombings, though scars on the buildings were still fresh, and busses and streets i spent a lot of time on suffered soon after i left.

israel is a place of order, in some ways, but i will never get over the memory of sitting in cafes with fellow traveler friends, and watching baby-faced girls walk in and sit down, dressed in fatigues and carrying assault rifles.

israel has a government, albeit a chaotic parliamentary system. i wonder what iraq has. . .and that is why i am looking for hope right now.

tbt

thatoneguyinslc

on Feb 10, 2005

I agree with you for the most part Guy, but the fact of the matter is that the US felt that it was a stategic position in the pacific, and propped up the Marcos regime for all those years to insure that we wouldnt have to leave. When he finally was thrown out the phillipine people asked us to leave. Combine that with BRAC, upgrades in the military infrastructure, and a natural disaster cleanup are what finally led us out of there.

My point is that we stayed there for a long time. And we will be in Iraq for a long time as well.

Dr Guy

on Feb 10, 2005

Reply By: TaBoo TenentePosted: Thursday, February 10, 2005

TBT, all you rconcerns are valid. And in the end, the government of Iraq might be closer to iran than we like, but that does not mean we whould abandon them. When Saddam invaded Kuwait, what happened?

Do you think that if Iran tried to invade Iraq, that the world would sit by? I dont fear the survival of Iraq, I do worry that they will drift into a theocracy, altho I think Bush is doing a better job than Carter did in Iran. But in the end, it is up to the people. Even today, many Iranis dont like the theocracy,a nd I think it will fail in time.

Truth is, we dont know the future. But we can look forward to it with hope, or with dread. Both will not be 100% right, but one lets you sleep at night,and also look to how you can fix the problems sure to pop up, without becoming despondant.

couchman

on Feb 10, 2005

we are the infrastructure there, now, like it or not.

To a certain extent you are correct...problem is aside from Baghdad and certain small locations, the infrastructure of Iraq was basicly left to rot since the 1950's...what was there anyway....

Now on to some other things....first..the sect the iraqi shia's worship is of the modest sect (the name I forget) while Irans mullahs worship I believe its called Qum which tends to play to fanatics.....Iran's ruling goverment is on the clock counting down...why do I say this...simple, as I stated, 75% of Iranians are 35 and under, pro-west/pro-us, another point is the mullahs have been hiring non-iranians to help enforce their rule (damm outsourcing), and are dreading the possibility of economic sanctions..they love their oil revenue's.

Possible civil war in Iraq is laughable as the sunni's even with the foreign terrorists and hired arabs still would be out numbered for one (20% of a population never won a civil war), secondly, the best fighters bar none inside Iraq now are the Kurds(who are mostly sunni arabs) who have no love of the sunnis, very pro-democracy(been doing it for over 10 years now which explains why the north is so ecconomicly and socially stable) and are willing to rule along with the shia's of the south somewhat peacefully; finally the southern shia's are jumping at the chance of representative rule, willing to dispute differences with the ballot box instead of with a gun (how novel) and Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani has consistently declared that he doesnt want another theocratic goverment like Iran's (guess him telling off Iranian representatives while at a hospital in the uk several months ago doesnt give a clue)...iran offered men, material, financial aid...Sistani told them to get fucked (diplomaticly of course). For now Iraq is looking very hopeful for the future....but even if it de-evolves into a 2 or 3 way civil war...our best bet would be to throw our full aid and support to the kurds.

People who are nothing more than naysayers of doom love to spout that the terrorists and thugs in Iraq are akin to what transpired in Vietnam which means we will lose....hate to pop that myth bubble but after Tet of 68', the viet kong were no longer a threat in any sense ( low conservative estimates put their losses at bout 50,000 as a result of Tet) and never beat South Vietnam...the NVA military took over after that.....the south fell after years to the North Vietnamese regular military forces (after the dem controlled congress denied promised aid) but who am I to bicker...I'm just a conservative american whos been assaulted by left-wing "peace-protesters" called a nazi (my grandfather would roll over in his grave on that one..but thats another story) and called an idiot.... call me crazy but can we just once enjoy the fact that elections were held in Iraq...they are on the path to normalcy but are at a fork in the road...whichever path they take may have unintended consequences both good and bad...

TaBoo Tenente

on Feb 11, 2005

hey couchman,

you're bringing a lot of good bits here, but you're too angry at someone who doesn't exist on this thread. it's hard not to become sensitive in such a polarized system, but you've got to know that youre throwing around as much anger as, say, an anti-war activist. "will you just calm the fuck down, man?" "calmer than you, Dude." sorry for the lebowski tangent.

im not sure if you are trying to label me one of your naysayers of doom spouting about terrorists making unnatural whoopie with thugs in vietnam, but, er, come on, dude. you're seeing things.

what i see is a gutted country (yes, the gutting process has taken place over several decades) in a very unstable region of the world. i see continued insurgencies there and highlt polarized political debate here (all right?) so it shouldnt surprise you that im looking for hope.

yeah im happy about free elections, and im surprisingly excited about the voter turn out. still, if youre breathing a sigh of relief, you may want to reserve some extra 02 for later, just in case.

i am cetainly a liberal, and there is no way that you would ever hear me call you a nazi, unless you suggested it yourself. some liberals have hyperbolically used the term and in no way do i sanction that or any other labeling. but i could pick two or three labels out of your rants, and add pinko commie hairy hippie-lettuce smokin skirt wearin bleeding heart sissy mary to not to mention the worst of all the labels (LIBERAL) to the list of accusatory, unproductive, and frankly unenlightened labeling done recently.

none of which, of course, has anything to do with this thread. there are soldiers dying on both sides . . .civilians, too. i have no interest in suggesting this is a worse human disaster than any other, but that doesnt bring a happy face out from me yet.

if the voting makes you hopeful, then good. me, too. but for me, it's not enough.

tbt

scatter629

on Feb 11, 2005

if the voting makes you hopeful, then good. me, too. but for me, it's not enough

Although good voter turnout was a surprising relief, it also tells us that despite its recent history of despotic rule, the Iraqis do have a concept of country. Such a mindset early in its US-occupation period will easily solidify into that of a sovereign nation conscious of its respectability in the eyes of its neighbors and the world. Whatever political mix of ethnic/religious rulers Iraq will finally have, attention will have to be given on the need of foreign troops in their land. When that happens, even a, say, liberal Al Sistani government can call a national referendum on US troops in Iraq early in the game. If the results turn the way the Philippine senate ruled on the US bases in the '90's, will the US government respect this? The answers will really test what the US intentions for Iraq are and if not dealt with correctly, could lead to an anti-US directed civil war, with neighbors Syria and Iran helping the fledgling government in Iraq. No "doomsday-naysayer" whatever here. Just cold political analysis that should be addressed early on.

Dr Guy

on Feb 11, 2005

Reply By: couchmanPosted: Thursday, February 10, 2005

Great Post Couchman. Thanks for the info, some I already knew, but some very insighful.

couchman

on Feb 11, 2005

Great Post Couchman. Thanks for the info, some I already knew, but some very insighful.

Yes, I really hate citing facts......as those on the left nearly explode everytime......

As to the elections...lets all remembers something thats rarely talked bout any more....For instance, just after the war, the "world" community also known as the ranting left cried that elections and return of power were not happening fast enough...but when we did...it happened too fast from the same intelectual elites....regarding the elections, we heard that if the Iraqis didnt get 100% turnout.....then the results wouldnt have been legitimate.....as if it's possible to get an average of just over 50% in the US alone (last presidential election hit 62%- a record in recent years) and on average the western world gets bout 55-60% turnout across the board....and we are not under threat of death for voting...if getting at least 50% voter turnout is good enough for the rest of the world...why wasnt it okay for iraq (when they got bout 60%). As for the UN's part or lack thereof, most of their election observers kept careful watch...from nearby nations...

The Iraqis have bout under a year to formalize and ratify a parliment, president, to vp's, a prime minister, their constitution; can we at least give them the chance at doing that before we jump at every little bit that may seem wrong from a western democracy point of view...

Dr Guy

on Feb 11, 2005

as if it's possible to get an average of just over 50% in the US alone (last presidential election hit 62%- a record in recent years)

Dont forget, that 62% is of Rergiestered voters, which is only about half the Eligible voters. The Iraqi number was of Eligible voters.

TaBoo Tenente

on Feb 11, 2005

scatter:

excellent response. the connection between the high voter turnout and a strong sense of "country" is very important. i thank you for reminding me.

i think that such a civil war is unlikely in the near future. not impossible, certainly, but im not sure the alignment of purpose is balanced or organized enough to produce more than the steady stream of insurgency and regular acts of isolated terrorism. but that is also one of the reasons, perhaps, that i have overlooked the connection between the high voter turnout and the sense of country. this goes back to the reason i wrote this article. all the facts (thank you couchman) and stories and maps and predicitons i get have such a slant, largly unacknowledged by whomever is producing them (sorry couchman) that i dont have any idea what sort of sentiment makes the rounds in iraqi circles.

i think it would be ridiculous to think that the iraqi people want saddam back (though i wont discount any possibility . . . someone probably longs nostalgically for the days when hoover ran the show, and, based on several unfortunate internet site encounters, there are nuttos aplenty wishing for any of the several fascist mustachios to return to finish what they started) nor should they. but what kind of purpose are they looking for? thats when my hope dies, because i have a hard time imagining that they want too much more than an assurance against looters, safe streets, and living children.

and i could not agree with you more: i would love to feel some confidence in the assumed fact that cold political analysis is taking place somewhere important.

tbt

TaBoo Tenente

on Feb 11, 2005

helix:

good to hear from you; it's been a while, i think.

do you have a sense that the iraqi people have a common ground? it doesnt have to be a unanimous (hey, would it be "an unanimous" or "a unanimous"?) voice to survive, even in the middle east, but a strong voice will have to rise to the surface, i think. couchman doesnt think it's going to be a rabid one--and neither do i, if one ever surfaces.

tbt

TaBoo Tenente

on Feb 11, 2005

dr. guy,

carter and bush couldnt be more different, could they? one with the retiring, inaffectual attitude and the other with the blunt, somewhat sensitive trigger finger . . . i cant imagine that carter could have done too much less to solve the problems in iran and i still have no idea what bush's motivations are. dont get me wrong: im shaky about bush in general (and im not losing sleep over the fact that kerry lost the election) but im praying that he knows what he is doing right now.

i dont want to abandon anyone. i dont want usa to remove troops until some stability returns and some concrete foundation for a future government reveals itself. even then, i would guess that leaving some force will be necessary, which breeds the question: how long will they really be content for us to be there? if it were my country, i would be searching for anything that would keep me safe at this point. but i also havent had a war taking place on my front lawn.

guy, i appreciate your comments on this thread. very thoughtful and insightful (it's too bad that i only can vote for one of these for a bonus rating) and i appreciate your even-handed patience.

tbt

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